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Expected cost = chance of divorce × what divorce costs you. Chance of divorce is fixed at 46%, the midpoint of the CDC estimate that 44% (men) to 48% (women) of first marriages end within 20 years. CDC NHSR No. 49
Property: you both save your savings rate into a marital pot with no investment growth, and it's split 50/50 (the community-property rule; other states vary). What you lose is your savings minus half the pot: 0.5 × savings rate × years × (your salary − spouse's salary). If your spouse earns more, this is a gain for you. IRS Pub. 555 (community property)
Alimony uses the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers' 2007 proposed guideline. It isn't binding anywhere and states differ a lot. Yearly amount = 30% of the higher earner's gross minus 20% of the lower earner's, capped so the receiver never ends up with more than 40% of combined income. Duration = years married × 0.3 (up to 3 yrs), × 0.5 (over 3 and up to 10), × 0.75 (over 10 and up to 20). Over 20 years the guideline says permanent. This model caps it at one year of payments per year married for marriages over 20 years, so it understates those. If you're the lower earner, alimony comes out as money you receive. AAML 2007 recommendations (text)
Legal fees: $12,780 for a fought divorce (average attorney fees of $11,300 plus $1,480 in other costs) and $4,100 for an uncontested one. Martindale-Nolo survey
Prenup: costs $8,000 up front, the average attorney-drafted prenup in HelloPrenup's 2024 survey of family lawyers. SmartAsset / HelloPrenup. A valid prenup is assumed to waive alimony, keep savings separate and make the divorce uncontested. Assumption: it gets thrown out 10% of the time, because there's no reliable national number. Expected cost with a prenup = $8,000 + 46% × (10% × full bill + 90% × $4,100).
Not included: kids and child support, investment growth, house equity, taxes, debts, and the cost of the wedding itself. Alimony is no longer tax-deductible for divorces after 2018. IRS Topic 452