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Expected cost = chance of divorce × what divorce costs you. Your chance of divorce comes from your age at marriage, using the CDC's odds that a first marriage has ended (NHSR No. 49, Tables 5 and 6, women and men averaged): married under 20, 61% within 20 years; married at 20–24, 45.5% within 20 years; married at 25 or over, 29.5% within 15 years. The CDC doesn't publish a reliable 20-year figure for the 25-and-over group, so that one understates it. These are the CDC's three brackets, not a smooth curve. The CDC sample was aged 15–44, so if you marry at 45 or older we use the 25-and-over figure. That part is an assumption. CDC NHSR No. 49
Years married is capped so the marriage in the model ends by age 67, Social Security's full retirement age for anyone born in 1960 or later (minimum 1 year). The cap is our choice: the model assumes the same salary every year, and that stops making sense after retirement. SSA full retirement age
Property: you both save your savings rate into a marital pot with no investment growth, and it's split 50/50 (the community-property rule; other states vary). What you lose is your savings minus half the pot: 0.5 × savings rate × years × (your salary − spouse's salary). If your spouse earns more, this is a gain for you. IRS Pub. 555 (community property)
Alimony uses the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers' 2007 proposed guideline. It isn't binding anywhere and states differ a lot. Yearly amount = 30% of the higher earner's gross minus 20% of the lower earner's, capped so the receiver never ends up with more than 40% of combined income. Duration = years married × 0.3 (up to 3 years), × 0.5 (over 3 and up to 10), × 0.75 (over 10 and up to 20). Over 20 years the guideline says permanent. This model caps it at one year of payments per year married, so it understates those. If you're the lower earner, alimony comes out as money you receive. AAML 2007 recommendations (text)
Legal fees: $12,780 for a fought divorce (average attorney fees of $11,300 plus $1,480 in other costs) and $4,100 for an uncontested one. Martindale-Nolo survey
Prenup: costs $8,000 up front, the average attorney-drafted prenup in HelloPrenup's 2024 survey of family lawyers. SmartAsset / HelloPrenup. A valid prenup is assumed to waive alimony, keep savings separate and make the divorce uncontested. Assumption: it gets thrown out 10% of the time, because there's no reliable national number. Expected cost with a prenup = $8,000 + your chance of divorce × (10% × full bill + 90% × $4,100).
Not included: kids and child support, investment growth, house equity, taxes, debts, second marriages (the CDC odds are for first marriages), and the cost of the wedding itself. Alimony is no longer tax-deductible for the payer, or taxable for the receiver, under divorce agreements signed after 2018. IRS Topic 452